AGP Executive Report

Border Reopening: Iraq announced a phased restart of three Iran crossings—al-Sheeb and Shalamcheh for passengers from Sunday, with trade and the remaining crossings to resume on set days—after security and technical reviews tied to drone attacks near the Saudi pipeline. Saudi Pipeline Fallout: Baghdad says drone launch activity linked to the Saudi East-West pipeline attack originated from Iraq’s Maysan province, after which it closed crossings and seized a drone launch platform used in the strike. Regional Diplomacy: Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi is pushing Europe ties on a France-Germany trip, while Iran and Gulf states are set to meet in Oman on Strait of Hormuz shipping; Bahrain says it won’t attend. Fuel Pressure at Home: In Duhok, drivers reported hours-long waits for subsidized gasoline as shortages persist. Governance & Security: A Coordination Framework source says PM al-Zaidi received an “extensive” report on restricting weapons to state control and addressing armed factions. Environment Watch: Iraq ranked second-lowest among Arab states in the 2026 Environmental Performance Index.

Saudi-Iraq Pipeline Fallout: Iraq confirmed drones that hit Saudi Arabia’s vital East-West crude pipeline were launched from Iraqi territory, ordered an investigation, and dismissed senior security officials in Maysan; Riyadh shut the pipeline “as a precaution,” while Trump said Iran was “probably” behind the attack. Border Crackdown: Baghdad closed three Iran crossings (Shalamsheh, al-Shib, al-Mandali) to track perpetrators and stop drone smuggling, and later agreed to a joint probe with Iran into suspected launch sites. Regional Tensions at Hormuz: Iran and Oman agreed on new Strait of Hormuz entry/exit routes, but Tehran said the strait won’t reopen unless its conditions are met; meanwhile a projectile struck a vessel in the Strait, adding to shipping and oil-supply fears. Yemen Escalation: Fighting intensified as Yemeni forces hit Houthi positions and convoys, while the Houthis’ Red Sea advances keep pressure on Bab el-Mandeb, tightening the energy chokehold across the region. Diplomacy Calls for Restraint: Iran, Iraq and Türkiye urged restraint to prevent escalation, as ministers discussed border security and a planned Oman meeting with Gulf states.

Saudi-Iraq Pipeline Crisis: Saudi Arabia shut its East-West oil pipeline after drones hit the Riyadh and Medina areas, and Riyadh says the drones were launched from Iraq; Baghdad confirmed the attacks originated from Maysan province, launched investigations, and dismissed the Maysan operations commander while also removing the police chief and transferring security agency directors. Regional Fallout: Iraq closed several border crossings with Iran as an “economic penalty,” and approved a joint probe with Tehran into drone launch sites near the border; the UAE and other Gulf states condemned the attacks, while the Iraqi Islamic Resistance denied involvement. Political Messaging: Iraqi President Nizar Amidi and Parliament Speaker Halbousi both rejected using Iraqi territory or airspace as a launchpad for attacks on neighbors, stressing state control of arms and legal action. Energy Deal at Home: In Erbil, Iraq signed a 25-year contract to boost production at the Ajil oil field, aiming to raise oil and gas output. Corruption Crackdown: Iraq’s integrity commission detained four Babil officials over alleged fictitious and overpriced vehicle repairs.

Red Sea Tensions: Houthis seized Perim (Mayun) Island in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, tightening their grip on the key shipping lane linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Saudi Energy Shock: Saudi Arabia temporarily shut its East-West oil pipeline after drone attacks hit the Riyadh and Medina regions, injuring people and damaging infrastructure, with satellite images showing smoke near the route. Iraq Blames Probe, Riyadh Holds Fire: Saudi foreign ministry said the drones were launched from Iraq, but Riyadh chose not to retaliate “at this stage” after a request from Iraq’s prime minister; Baghdad condemned the attack, dismissed a senior commander in Maysan, and launched an investigation, including a temporary closure of the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iran. Regional Diplomacy: Iran said it is preparing a foreign-ministers meeting in Oman next Monday to discuss safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz with Persian Gulf states, including Iraq.

Strait of Hormuz Talks: Iran says a regional foreign ministers’ meeting in Oman on Sept. 14 will review efforts to set “safe routes” for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran, Iraq and Gulf neighbors discussing navigation security amid US-Iran tensions. Red Sea Pressure: Iran-aligned Houthis seized Yemen’s Mocha port, a move that could tighten control near Bab el-Mandeb and disrupt global shipping. Baghdad Anti-Drugs: Iraqi security forces arrested 13 suspected drug traffickers in Baghdad and dismantled a six-member marijuana network, seizing about 3.5kg, as authorities report hundreds of drug-ring busts in 2026. Fuel Prices Denied: Iraq’s Oil Ministry rejected social-media claims of gasoline price hikes, saying subsidized fuel rates will stay unchanged despite ongoing shortages in parts of the country. Oil Supply Worries: A Saudi oil pipeline system was hit by projectiles, with early analysis pointing to damage at pump stations and raising fears for energy exports as regional conflict escalates. 9/11 Remembrance With Iraq Link: US officials marked the 25th anniversary of 9/11 at major ceremonies, with Trump again tying the “war on terror” legacy to current pressure on Iran.

Iraq Coalition Exit: Iraq’s Kurdish region is seeing the daily pullout of coalition forces, with the KRG Interior Minister saying the full withdrawal is on track to finish by end-September, after a Baghdad-Washington transition plan that sets Sept. 30 as the final deadline. Peshmerga Weapons Debate: Asaib Ahl al-Khazali says Iraq’s push to bring weapons under state control should not apply to the Peshmerga as an institution, citing constitutional recognition—while still arguing sovereignty requires the force to answer to the commander-in-chief. Football Development: FIFA President Gianni Infantino backed Baghdad football infrastructure, including a youth sports center, a main training ground to international standards, and federation upgrades, with some pitches planned to be completed quickly once land is secured. Regional Security Context: Japan lowered travel warnings for parts of Iraq and Lebanon from evacuation-level alerts, while keeping tighter restrictions elsewhere in the Middle East amid ongoing regional tensions.

US-Iraq Security Transition: The US-led anti-ISIS coalition has started withdrawing from Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, with forces now mainly at Erbil airport and due to fully leave by Sept. 30, as Iraqi and Kurdish officials say the mission against IS is largely done. Peshmerga Reform: Kurdistan’s Peshmerga ministry says the long process of unifying Peshmerga forces under one command has been completed, bringing major units from both KDP and PUK under the ministry umbrella. Fuel Protests: Across Iraq, protests over fuel prices, diesel costs and unpaid dues spread from Wasit to Karbala and Al-Muthanna, with farmers blocking roads and workers threatening action. Currency Watch: The US dollar closed mixed in Iraq, hovering around 156,000 dinars per $100 in Baghdad and Erbil. Red Sea Shock: Oil prices jumped above $105 a barrel as Houthis seized Mocha, raising fears for shipping through Bab al-Mandeb and adding pressure to an already tense Hormuz situation. Air Defences: Iraq says it has finalized contracts for new air defence systems from the US, South Korea and Turkey, with deliveries expected soon ahead of the Sept. 30 coalition exit.

Oil & Security: Iraq is pushing OPEC+ for a bigger oil output quota as the group weighs a capacity review, while the wider region stays tense after US-Iran tanker attacks and drone strikes that reportedly damaged vessels in Iraqi waters. Militias & Disarmament: Baghdad’s push to bring weapons under state control ahead of Sept. 30 faces resistance from Iran-aligned factions, with talks shifting toward possible “freeze” plans rather than full disarmament. Economy & Trade: Iraq is stepping up EU trade and investment talks and has agreed to form an Iraqi-Armenian business council; it also discussed Egypt land-freight facilitation and a possible “Made in Egypt” expo in Baghdad. Education Crisis: Iraqi schools are heading into the new academic year with textbook shortages after delayed printing contracts and reduced funding, leaving many directorates to rely on reused books. Sports: Iraq is set for the record 10-team U17 Gulf Cup in Qatar, and Iraq’s U20s booked an Asian tennis berth.

Maritime Security: Iraq’s Oil Ministry says a fuel-oil tanker chartered by the state was hit by an unidentified source in Iraqi territorial waters, causing minor hull damage with no casualties or cargo leakage; authorities are investigating and monitoring the vessel after UKMTO reported a separate “unknown projectile” incident near Faw. Kurdistan Budget Talks: Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government met over the draft 2027 federal budget and KRI financial entitlements, including investment and operating funds. Historical Recovery: In Duhok, remains of 10 victims from the 1991 Kurdish mass exodus were found near the Sarzeri border crossing with DNA testing underway. Anti-Corruption Crackdown: Iraq’s Integrity Commission arrested three in a Babil bribery and extortion case tied to provincial land approvals, seizing documents and bank cards. Counter-ISIS Ops: Iraqi F-16s carried out four strikes on ISIS hideouts in Wadi Al-Shay, destroying designated targets. Currency Watch: The US dollar edged lower in Baghdad and Erbil, trading around 156,000 IQD per $100.

US-Iran Tensions: The US says it struck five IRGC-linked crude oil tankers after Iran tried to hit a US warship with ballistic missiles; CENTCOM reports no US injuries and describes the ships as part of an IRGC “shadow network.” Gulf Security & Militias: AP reports Iran-backed fighters in Yemen and Iraq are coordinating to threaten Gulf states, with Houthis helping plan an attack on Saudi oil facilities and Iraqi militias refusing disarmament. Oil Markets: Brent is near $100 a barrel as Middle East shipping risks rise, but alternative routes, extra supply and weaker demand are keeping prices from crossing the line. Iraq Energy Push: Iraq’s oil conference in Baghdad highlights export, refining and pipeline priorities, including an Iraq-Turkey northern route push and work tied to major partners. Business & Finance: Iraq approved eight insurance firms for trading on its OTC platform, while the CBI moves to support currency and deposit stability. Humanitarian/Weapons: A new global report says cluster munitions killed and injured at least 1,063 people in 2025, with Iraq among the affected countries.

Media Crackdown: Iraq’s Communications and Media Commission suspended Sawt Al-Shaab on Iraq Al-Hadath for 90 days and barred presenter Marwa Hashem from appearances over alleged broadcasting rule violations, while the channel’s owner Bilal Al-Maliki was detained in Iran at Iraq’s request. Shiite Politics: A dispute over proposed deputy prime minister posts has exposed tensions inside the Shiite Coordination Framework, with talks also continuing—slowly—on bringing weapons under state control. Sovereignty vs. Arms: Armed factions say weapons can only be exchanged for full sovereignty, making Sept. 30 a key test for the US-led coalition’s commitments. Anti-Corruption: Iraq’s Integrity Commission arrested a Tikrit municipality property official over an alleged land-allocation scheme, seizing deeds and cash, as more cases hit state institutions. Economy & Daily Life: The US dollar rose in Baghdad and Erbil to around 156,000 IQD per $100, while Iraq’s job market faces AI-driven shifts that hit new graduates hardest. Kurdistan Environment: Rising fuel prices and weak electricity are pushing renewed tree-cutting risks in the KRI as winter nears.

SAS in the fight against ISIS: Britain’s SAS played a key role in Operation Shader, helping coalition forces with intelligence, surveillance and targeting support across Iraq and Syria, including covert work around Al-Tanf and former ISIS strongholds. Iraq’s customs push: Iraq expects customs revenues to hit 4 trillion dinars by year-end, crediting the ASYCUDA system for faster, more transparent processing and plans to extend it to Kurdistan border crossings. CBI crackdown on forex firms: The Central Bank of Iraq revoked licences of three exchange companies over falsified cash-sale records, ordering refunds or rate-differential payments. Investor warning: The Iraq Securities Commission cautioned the public against unlicensed entities promising high, fast returns or asking for transfers to personal accounts. Regional pressure on shipping: Iran says it will set an “exclusion zone” near the Strait of Hormuz, threatening sanctions for vessels entering the area, as shipping traffic drops to the lowest levels since May. Business and trade: Ford named a new Iraq distributor partner, while Iraq and Palestine discussed easing pharmaceutical registration to expand market access.

Armed Factions & State Control: A planned Coordination Framework meeting with armed factions on bringing weapons under state control was postponed after Al-Nujaba’s absence, with talks now likely to shift after the Sept. 30 US coalition withdrawal deadline. Kirkuk Oil Governance: Kurdish MPs in Kirkuk urged Iraq’s oil ministry to intervene over alleged unfair management at the state-run North Oil Company, warning they may pursue legal and parliamentary oversight. Anti-Drug Crackdown: Iraq’s narcotics authorities in Erbil arrested two suspects and seized 4 kg of crystal meth, while Al-Anbar’s criminal court sentenced a drug trafficker to death over amphetamine possession. Currency Watch: The US dollar dipped in Baghdad and Erbil, trading around 155,500 dinars per $100. Trade Update: India’s exports to Iraq fell sharply in Q2 2026, dropping about 42% to $317 million, with cereals and meat leading. Regional Security & Energy: Iran said an Iran-Oman “temporary safe passage” for Strait of Hormuz shipping is nearing UN registration, as OPEC+ kept October quotas steady amid disruption fears.

Oil & Energy: OPEC+ kept October oil output quotas unchanged from September after a virtual meeting of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, aiming to stabilize markets amid West Asia uncertainty. Iraq’s Exports: Iraq said it has already pushed crude export capacity above 3 million bpd and is targeting 5 million bpd through new pipeline routes linking Basra-Haditha-Fishkhabur and Haditha-Banias to Mediterranean outlets, reducing reliance on Strait of Hormuz shipments. Security & Sovereignty: Iraq’s government says the U.S. withdrawal of defense systems and remaining troops is set to complete by late September as the coalition mission ends by Sept. 30, with Baghdad stressing full sovereignty from Oct. 1. Local Development: Iraq announced plans for modern cities in every province, funded via investment loans and land allocation, with provincial commissions to submit project visions quickly. Culture & Heritage: The 27th Baghdad International Book Fair opened with record participation from 28 countries, while restoration work continues on the 3,400-year-old Aqarquf ziggurat west of Baghdad with an Italian archaeological team.

US-Iraq/Kurdistan Withdrawal: Iraq’s national security adviser Qasim al-Araji says coalition forces will fully withdraw by Sept. 30, including remaining defense systems in Erbil, with phased removal already under way. Security Talks: Federal and Kurdistan officials met to tighten border control and boost intelligence-sharing against smuggling and infiltration. PMF Law Moves: Iraq’s government plans to send PMF-related draft legislation to parliament in the coming weeks, including restructuring and service/retirement bills. Banking Shock in Baghdad: Al-Taif Islamic Bank says it will soon return depositors’ funds after a Central Bank committee took over management; depositors had protested frozen services. Oil Market Watch: OPEC+ kept October production levels unchanged at September’s targets, as Hormuz disruption and the Iran war continue to cloud supply. Currency: The US dollar rose in Baghdad while staying steadier in Erbil. Sports: Iraq’s U20s booked a spot in the 2027 AFC U-20 Asian Cup finals after beating Thailand 3-1.

US-Iran Escalation: The US struck three Iran-linked oil tankers after Tehran targeted US warships, with Washington warning of further action if ships are attacked, as the region’s shipping risk keeps rising. Oil Route Shift: Iraq says crude exports have hit about 3 million bpd and could reach 5 million via new pipeline routes toward Fishkhabur and Syria’s Banias, aiming to cut reliance on Hormuz. Fuel Pressure at Home: Gasoline shortages are driving long queues in Baghdad as regional conflict disrupts imports, despite Iraq’s large oil output. Kirkuk Security: A leadership change is expected at Kirkuk Operations Command, underscoring the province’s political and security sensitivity. Anti-Corruption Crackdown: Iraq’s Integrity Commission arrested five staff over alleged violations in Al-Hussein Teaching Hospital renovations in Al-Muthanna, including stalled work and cost discrepancies. Trade & Transport Deals: Iraq unveiled three ESCWA initiatives for transport resilience, and moved toward a maritime cooperation MoU with Lebanon, while Iraq and India chambers signed a trade cooperation agreement. Regional Economy: Iraq says it completed an investigation into about 5,700 ISIS detainees transferred from Syria, with cases set to proceed to trial. Agriculture Win: Iraq announced self-sufficiency in wheat and dates for the 2026 season, citing new seed varieties and long-term irrigation support. KRG Infrastructure: The Korre-Shaqlawa-Qandil road in Kurdistan is 70% complete, with an October opening planned.