AGP Executive Report

U.S.-Iran War Escalation: After a brief lull, Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan, all intercepted, and the U.S. launched “powerful” retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets. Iraq Becomes a New Front: The U.S. and Saudi Arabia carried out coordinated airstrikes on Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Forces sites in Iraq, killing at least 20 fighters and six Iranian advisers, prompting Baghdad to call it a “flagrant violation of sovereignty” and order legal action. Regional Spillover: Drone attacks also sparked fires on gas vessels at Egypt’s Damietta port, while Iran and the U.S. traded threats as the conflict widened. Diplomacy Stalls: Talks efforts appear deadlocked, with Iran rejecting a Strait of Hormuz proposal and both sides signaling more force if negotiations fail. Security Pressure in Iraq: Iraq’s new prime minister, Al-Zaidi, is caught between Washington’s demands for militia disarmament and Tehran’s pressure, as funerals and retaliation vows follow the strikes. Energy and Markets: Oil prices jumped on renewed supply fears, adding to inflation worries.

US-Iran Escalation: Trump vowed to retaliate after Iran launched ballistic missiles at US forces in Jordan, saying the US will “hit hard” as air defenses intercepted the attack and oil prices jumped. US-Saudi Strikes in Iraq: In response, US and Saudi jets carried out coordinated strikes on Iran-aligned militia sites across eastern Iraq, with the Popular Mobilization Forces saying at least 20 were killed and 32 wounded; Iraq’s National Security Council condemned the raids as a sovereignty violation. Regional Frontline Pressure on Jordan: Analysis highlights how Iran and its militias are increasingly targeting Jordan with missiles and drones, testing whether Amman stays quiet or joins a broader response. Iraq’s Balancing Act: Iraq’s government faces mounting pressure as it tries to manage threats from both Washington and Tehran while non-state forces remain active. Arbaeen and Ports: Jordan moved to expedite cargo flow through Aqaba and border crossings amid regional disruption, while Umm Qasr port operations reportedly slowed as Hormuz risks and regional fighting disrupt shipping. Domestic Security: Iraq sentenced six alleged ISIS members to death, including the group’s “Governor of Anbar,” after investigations.

US-Saudi Strikes on Iran-Linked Militias: CENTCOM says US and Saudi forces carried out joint precision strikes in eastern Iraq on July 28 against Iran-aligned groups, after more than 30 drone attacks in 72 hours aimed at US troops and Saudi energy infrastructure; CENTCOM warns the IRGC and proxies must stop or face more action. Missile Intercept, War Escalation: The US also says it intercepted an “attempted surprise” Iranian ballistic missile barrage aimed at US forces in the Middle East, ending a brief lull. Saudi Justification, Iraq Probe: Saudi Defense says its air defenses destroyed drones launched from Iraq targeting petroleum facilities, and Baghdad has ordered investigations after Riyadh’s accusations. Iraq-Turkey Energy and Security Talks: Iraq’s new PM Ali al-Zaidi arrived in Ankara for talks with Erdogan on pipeline options, trade, water, and security, as Baghdad seeks routes to reduce exposure of oil exports to Gulf tensions. Regional Security Messaging: Erdogan reiterated Turkey’s push for peaceful solutions, while both sides framed cooperation as key to stability.

Drone Diplomacy & Regional Security: Arab states and the OIC condemned drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities, saying drones were launched from Iraqi territory by Iran-backed militias, with Saudi and regional partners warning of dangerous escalation. Iraq-Turkiye Energy Push: Iraq’s new prime minister, Ali al-Zaidi, arrived in Ankara for talks on security, water, trade, and a pipeline deal to cut Iraq’s exposure to Gulf disruptions. Oil Exports via Syria: Iraq exported about 2.1 million tonnes of heavy fuel oil by land through Syria to Europe since April, as Strait of Hormuz risks keep pushing alternative routes. Arbaeen Mobilization in Karbala: A media coordination meeting in Karbala focused on easing work for local and international journalists covering Arbaeen. Security & Defense Appointments: Iraq named Maj. Gen. Yahya Rasool Abdullah as Defence Ministry spokesperson. Humanitarian Recovery: Norwegian People’s Aid reported clearing over 7.4 million square meters of landmines and unexploded ordnance in al-Anbar, supporting safe returns and rebuilding. Arbaeen on the Move: Pilgrims from Muthanna’s Salman District began their walking journey to Karbala despite harsh desert conditions.

Iraq-Saudi Drone Row: Saudi Arabia urged Baghdad to stop its territory being used to launch drones after Riyadh said attacks on Saudi oil and infrastructure came from Iraq; Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi ordered an investigation, while Iran-backed “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” denied the claim and warned Saudi against acting inside Iraq. Erbil Under Pressure: Explosions rocked Erbil, including near the US consulate, as Iranian drones were alleged to have hit areas northeast of the city; local reports said US aircraft and drones were operating overhead. US-Iran Talks vs Strikes: President Trump said the US is having “good talks” with Iran and warned strikes could resume if diplomacy fails, while Tehran said no direct talks are underway and accused the US of aggression. Oil and Markets: Oil prices slid as the US paused strikes, with Hormuz shipping fears driving broader regional energy risk. Energy Deals: Iraq moved ahead with MoUs for the Akkas gas field and discussed deeper economic cooperation with Germany, while corruption investigators seized IQD 27bn in an oil ministry case. Business and Tech: Iraq and Nineveh advanced digital infrastructure plans, and Iraq-Jordan trade cooperation talks were held in Baghdad.

Saudi-Iraq Drone Row: Saudi Arabia condemned drone attacks it says were launched from Iraqi territory by Iran-backed militias, saying its air defenses intercepted and destroyed drones aimed at petroleum facilities in the Eastern Province and Riyadh, while urging Baghdad to stop its soil being used as a launchpad. Regional Oil Pressure: The wider Iran-linked drone and missile back-and-forth is also feeding into Red Sea disruption fears, with shipping slowdowns around Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz keeping oil markets jumpy. Diplomacy vs. Tension: Despite reports of progress by mediators to restart US-Iran talks after a pause in strikes, scattered attacks across the region—including claims involving Yemen’s Houthis and drone activity tied to Iraq—show the risk of escalation is still there. Arbaeen Logistics: In Iraq, Arbaeen pilgrims resumed arrivals via the Safwan border crossing after the Al-Abdali crossing reopened from the Kuwaiti side, with security and service teams mobilized to speed entry. Anti-Corruption: Iraq’s authorities seized IQD27bn in cash in an expanding corruption probe tied to former Deputy Oil Minister Adnan al-Jumaili. Energy Diplomacy: Lebanon’s prime minister arrived in Baghdad to push energy cooperation, with the Kirkuk–Tripoli pipeline revival at the center of talks.

US-Iran Pause and Ceasefire Talks: The US and Iran held fire for a second straight day as negotiations for an interim ceasefire continued, with officials saying talks need “room” while attacks had recently disrupted the Strait of Hormuz. Pentagon Casualty Accounting Shake-Up: The Pentagon moved four US deaths (and 207 injuries) into a new “Overseas Operations” category, separating them from the main Iran-war tally and sparking fresh questions from lawmakers and families. Red Sea Disruption: Shipping through Bab el-Mandeb hit its lowest level in months after Houthis attacked Saudi oil installations, while Strait of Hormuz transit stayed severely restricted—raising fears for regional energy flows. Iraq Domestic Watch: In Al-Diwaniyah, authorities detained three municipal officials in a widening forgery and corruption probe involving forged loans, documents, and residency records. Arbaeen Mobilization: Iraq’s security media reported 1.5 million pilgrims entered since Muharram began, as preparations ramp up for the Arbaeen rush. Sports and Local Life: Iraq’s football federation is in talks to extend Graham Arnold’s contract through 2030, and Baghdad’s summer evening “drive” culture is drawing attention online.

Iraq-Lebanon Economic Push: Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi met Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam in Baghdad to expand bilateral ties, with talks focused on energy, telecoms, transport and broader regional stability. Energy Exports Beyond Hormuz: Iraq’s cabinet approved steps for a new Akkas gas exploration push with ConocoPhillips and backed a Syria-linked pipeline plan to route oil to the Mediterranean, aiming to cut Hormuz risk. Corruption Crackdown: Courts seized 27 billion dinars in the Saladin oil corruption case tied to detained former Oil Ministry refining undersecretary Adnan Al-Jumaili, following earlier recoveries. Markets Watch: The Iraq Stock Exchange saw a sharp weekly jump, with trading value up about 240% and the ISX60 rising slightly. Arbaeen Readiness: Karbala reviewed security and service plans as pilgrim numbers rise, while the Imam Ali shrine upgraded electronic displays for Arbaeen guidance. Regional Security Talks: Syria’s transitional president said Damascus is working on a security agreement with Israel while stressing it won’t drop its Golan claim. Kurdistan Fuel Crisis: The KRG held talks to resolve fuel shortages and high gasoline prices, citing supply constraints tied to regional conflict.

Iraq-Syria Energy Moves: Iraq’s cabinet approved steps to sign an agreement with Syria to build pipelines linking Iraqi oil sites to Mediterranean export markets, and also backed talks on developing the Akkas field with a consortium including ConocoPhillips. Water Security: Baghdad activated the Iraq–Türkiye water framework, with the financing mechanism set to start Sept. 1, 2026, as drought pressures remain severe. Regional Trade Pressure: Jordanian imports from Iraq plunged over 60% in the first five months of 2026, while Jordan’s exports to Iraq stayed roughly flat. Lebanon Fuel Deal: Lebanon’s PM Nawaf Salam is set to visit Baghdad to renew the fuel supply agreement and discuss expanding economic cooperation, including using Lebanon as an extra export route. Arbaeen Pilgrimage Surge: More than 1.27 million foreign visitors entered Iraq since Muharram began, with officials also reporting 1M+ pilgrims ahead of Arbaeen. Security Flashpoints: Iran’s army claimed “almost all” U.S. infrastructure in Erbil was destroyed, while Kuwait said the Abdaly border crossing will reopen within 48 hours after damage assessments. U.S.-Iraq Alert: The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad raised a security alert for Americans amid heightened regional tensions.

UN Diplomacy: UN chief Antonio Guterres met Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus in the first UN visit since the civil war era, urging international support for recovery. US-Iran War Fallout: The Pentagon’s official Iran-war death toll was reportedly cut from 18 to 14, excluding July deaths; meanwhile, drones hit near the US consulate in Erbil and US strikes continued as both sides trade attacks across the Gulf. Kurdistan Security: Iraqi air defenses downed a drone near the US consulate in Erbil, underscoring heightened alert levels for US sites. Iraq-Kuwait Border Ties: Kuwait said the Abdali crossing will reopen within 48 hours after a drone attack, while Iraq and Kuwait met at Safwan after strikes. Arbaeen Prep: Imam Hussein’s Hospitality Division is running meal and water services at border crossings for Arbaeen pilgrims. Local Life & Economy: Baghdad’s Al-Turat quarter faces collapse risk as buildings deteriorate; Basra crude jumped 16%+ for the week, while the dollar rose in Baghdad and Erbil. Regional Trade Pressure: Maersk adjusted Gulf shipping routes and fees as Hormuz disruption reshapes logistics.

US-Iran Maritime Clash: The U.S. says it fired on another merchant vessel trying to breach its blockade of Iranian ports, disabling the M/T Lavine in the Gulf of Oman after repeated attempts; Iran meanwhile targeted U.S. strongholds around the Persian Gulf as the fight stretches into a 13th night. Explosions in Iraq: Hours after the latest U.S. strikes, explosions were reported near the U.S.-hosted base in Erbil, with smoke seen rising and Bahrain sirens sounding. Regional Spillover: Saudi Arabia struck Yemen’s Hodeida after Houthi attacks on Saudi shipping, while the Houthis vowed retaliation and escalation. Travel Warnings for Iraq: U.S. embassies across the Middle East issued country-specific alerts to Americans, including Iraq, warning that options to leave could become more limited as tensions rise. Iraq Anti-Corruption Push: In Al-Diwaniyah, raids tied to Iraq’s Dawn Crackdown led to the arrest of four contractors over alleged municipal fund irregularities, with reports of cash and valuables seized.

US-Iran Escalation in Iraq: Drones with explosives targeted Erbil, where US-led coalition troops are based, prompting air defences and blasts near the airport; flights reportedly continued as sirens sounded in Bahrain amid the 13th straight night of US strikes on Iran. Operation Nasr-2 Claims: Iran’s IRGC said it hit US assets in Jordan and Erbil, including fighter jets, a Patriot system, and a spy balloon, as it warned civilians to stay away from areas it says host American forces. Ceasefire Talks Hit a Wall: Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi’s office denied a New York Times report that Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal, while Iran said any deal must include guarantees and address control of the Strait of Hormuz. Energy Shock Fears: With shipping and Hormuz risks back in focus, oil prices jumped above $100 before easing, and markets wobbled as Gulf states brace for wider disruption. Local Human Impact: A US soldier’s widow described the toll of drone attacks on the Erbil base and said he only wanted to come home.

Iraq-Iran Diplomacy: Iraqi PM Ali Al-Zaidi’s first official visit to Tehran produced new economic and security talks, but Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal carried by the Iraqi leader, with Tehran saying it still doesn’t settle control of the Strait of Hormuz. Border Tensions: Kuwait reported “hostile Iranian drone” attacks on the Abdali crossing with Iraq, causing material damage and no casualties; Iraq later closed the Safwan crossing as a precaution. Anti-Corruption Push: Iraq’s Dawn Crackdown kept rolling—detectives found a hidden barrel of cash in Salahuddin tied to a major corruption case, while courts sentenced an MP over extortion and detained two traffic colonels over $1.5M embezzlement. Governance Deadlock: Al-Zaidi’s Cabinet still isn’t fully formed, with blocs urging parliament to fill remaining ministerial posts. Regional Security: GCC states and Jordan backed Iraq’s Sept. 30 plan to place weapons under state control, while rejecting continued resistance by Iran-aligned groups. Energy Pressure: Iran says $10–11B in energy funds and receivables are held or owed in Iraq, with transfer limits tied to US sanctions.

Border Security: Kuwait says “hostile drones” hit the Al-Abdali crossing with Iraq, causing material damage but no casualties, as Iraq’s side reported a temporary closure. US-Iran Tensions: Iran’s army says it will keep retaliatory strikes going while US attacks continue, amid reports of a US strike on the Shalamcheh border crossing between Iran and Iraq that killed two and injured 11. Regional Escalation: Yemen’s Houthis claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, raising fears of a new shipping chokepoint as oil briefly topped $100 a barrel. Diplomacy in Focus: Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi arrived in Tehran for talks with President Masoud Pezeshkian on energy, agriculture, and regional stability, with Iraq stressing neutrality in US-Iran tensions. Intelligence Scrutiny: Reuters reports US investigators are probing whether Russia helped Iran target covert CIA facilities, including sites in Saudi Arabia and eastern Iraq. Energy Routes: With Hormuz risk rising, regional states are accelerating pipeline plans, including Iraq-Syria restoration work aimed at cutting reliance on the strait.

US-Iran War & Iraq Security: Air defenses intercepted four drones over Erbil, with explosions heard near the US consulate; earlier, explosive-laden drones were also shot down near the consulate and around a Kurdistan Freedom Party camp. Anti-Corruption Crackdown: Iraq’s judiciary says it recovered 13 billion dinars plus gold in the Jumaili case, as part of a wider anti-corruption drive that has already netted billions in assets. Energy & Trade Routes: Iraq says it lost $40–45 billion in revenue since the war began, mainly from a sharp drop in oil exports as Hormuz risks choke shipments; at the same time, Iraq and Syria move into studies to rehabilitate the Kirkuk–Baniyas pipeline to reduce reliance on the strait. Regional Shipping Shock: Yemen’s Houthis claim they struck Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, while UKMTO reported a tanker fire after an unknown projectile—raising fresh concerns for global oil flows. Diplomacy Watch: Former US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad says Iraq’s PM Al-Zaidi has a chance to balance Washington and Tehran, but militia threats remain the key test.

Iraq-US Energy Push: Iraq says it secured $200bn in energy deals during Prime Minister Ali Al Zaidi’s Washington visit, including agreements with Halliburton, HKN Energy and Chevron, as Baghdad tries to boost crude output and gas self-sufficiency while planning export routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Kurdistan Diplomacy: Syria’s foreign ministry delegation visited Erbil to move ahead with opening a Syrian consulate for Kurds and Syrians in the region, where most of Iraq’s Syrian refugees live. Security Appointments: Iraq named new federal police and counterterrorism chiefs, signaling continued reshuffles as regional tensions rise. Regional War Fallout: The US-Iran standoff kept escalating, with Iran-linked attacks reported across the Gulf and new travel warnings issued for multiple countries, while oil shipping disruptions spread from the Red Sea to Hormuz-linked routes. Human Cost: The US announced a dignified transfer for four service members killed in the Middle East, including one soldier killed in Iraq during a drone detonation.